THIS IS OKC'S CHANCE.
Will the Heat trade Butler at the deadline? I think it's an absolute yes. They're not getting out of the first-round and are probably the most likely team to be replaced by Philadelphia in the current East Top 8. The issues now lies on which team will trade for him.
It has forever been between Golden State and Phoenix. But, let's be realistic:
1) What can the Suns offer? Bradley Beal, Ryan Dunn, and their only tradeable first-round pick? Eeeeng.
2) What will the Warriors be willing to give up? JK IN HIMSELF is a debatable sacrifice for the front office, but multiple firsts might cause doubt. I don't even see the fit transpire that smoothly. Wiggins is a better off-ball threat for the Warriors, and Schroder is already good at his playmaking role playing off Curry's threat. That doesn't scream a clear all-in nor clear upgrade, especially for a front office that doubted acquiring Markkanen. Acquiring a star doesn't fix half of the Warriors' problems (i.e. terrible center rotation, inconsistent shooting from the supporting cast, not playing Moses Moody, etc.).
Aside from the Warriors and Suns, I can only see Orlando and OKC being the two realistic destinations for Butler. But questions should surface for Orlando (presumptively giving Isaac, Black, more) if they're willing to deeply enter the luxury tax just to get Jimmy. They don't have a clear shot at a title this season, so I don't think they would bother as much.
But the Thunder? They'd remain a healthy cap situation for 2025-26 at the very earliest after this trade, as Chet's extension would still kick in after that season. Butler ticks the boxes for what the Thunder further needs: a consistent slasher along with Shai, a volume midrange shooter who would seemlessly fit right away.
Jalen Williams would not need to force up as much drives per game, which don't end up as efficient, with Butler on their team. This move would also make JDub the team's best wing defensive option with a lighter offensive role while STILL HAVING ALEX CARUSO on the bench (could not emphasize that enough). Butler as the second scoring option on a team that should be the clear title favorites after this trade should move the Thunder to at least inquire on the Heat's asking price for him. And this should be ample value, as no one else would be interested in giving up the same.
The Thunder are the perfect team as they are one of few with perfectly expendible players while being okay with keeping them but also being the team on paper most interested on a rental risk like Butler. But, none of the traded players by OKC shall have the same offensive role by the playoffs. Cason Wallace might see an amped up role after this trade, which he has been accustomed to already before the NBA. Kenrich Williams should still be able to provide key buckets on all levels for the team in spurts as well.
Warriors find a better fit in Dort than Butler, and Miami gets Kuminga who they can still invest in. If the Warriors still don't make this trade, they're stupid. Kuminga is already Year 4 and still lacks discipline on both ends of the ball, while they'll get Dort who can allow the Warriors to play a legitimate reliable, aggressive defense while giving them a versatile offensive threat.
POTENTIAL THUNDER ROTATION
Gilgeous-Alexander - Jalen Williams - Butler - Holmgren - Hartenstein
Caruso - Wallace - Kenrich Williams - Jaylin Williams
POTENTIAL WARRIORS ROTATION
Schroder - Curry - Dort - Wiggins - Green
Hield - Moody - Payton II - Jackson-Davis