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Combining Lillard, Herro and Ayton - More than the Sum of its parts?


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Pacers

Pacers

+4 players ($67.9m) +3 picks,
Cap Impact + $7.1M

-3  Wins

-20.85  MPG

-1.39  Off.

-3.33  Def.

Magic

Magic

+2 players ($21.6m),
Cap Impact - $2.1M

+2  Wins

-11.65  MPG

+2.24  Off.

+0.57  Def.

Suns

Suns

+4 players ($38.0m),
Cap Impact - $2.8M

+3  Wins

+24.69  MPG

-1.04  Off.

+1.79  Def.

Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers

+5 players ($51.8m) +3 picks,
Cap Impact - $7.4M

-2  Wins

+34.50  MPG

-8.09  Off.

+2.25  Def.

So this actually wasn't near as bad to manage as I thought it would be. The only really "bad" part is that Cronin (Portland GM) would have a great deal more work to do when all is said and done on squaring away his roster (he'd still need to move Grant/Simmons).

In case you've been sleeping

The Hard part has been finding a team to take on Herro and provide value. The Trailblazers want the Heat to take on Nurkic in the deal and find a 3rd party for Herro. Right now the maximum the Heat can offer is 2 first round picks due to the consecutive trade rules, that's really not enough for Lillard no matter how you slice it or how much posturing his agent does.

The other one the Pacers deal to the Suns is sort of the no brainer Myles Turner and McConnell for DeAndre Ayton, just pretty much waiting on the 1 year expiration of the trade moratorium for Ayton to Indiana.

A word on the 2025 pick

In order to ship out 3 picks the Heat need a conditional (though can be a swap) 2025 pick. The Denver pick Orlando owns is protected (1-5) in 2025 , odds Denver finishes in the lottery and get pulled out are pretty small.

  • Nutshell version , the Magic get the 1st of the 3 picks, the Heat the 2nd, and the Pacers the 3rd. Unless...

  • The tedious version. If the Denver pick conveys to the Magic in 2025 and the Pacers or Magic pick shall fall in the range of (1-5) , protection, the team with the highest rated pick shall retain it with the Heat receiving the 2nd pick if it falls in range 2-29, and Miami receiving the final pick. If the Denver pick does not convey to the Magic in 2025, the Miami Heat receive the lesser of Orlando's 2025 and the Pacers 2025 pick. If this occurs either the Magic or Pacers shall receive the non-conveyers 2026 1st round pick instead. Basically if by some miracle the Denver pick is 1-5; whomever gets left without a pick in 2025 gets the others pick for 2026.

Pacers add Herro and Ayton

So this is a pretty easy one they give up a tad more but while signing Bruce Brown (who is an exceptional defensive wing) they add Herro to Halliburton with Brown Jr. and Mautrin as a combination. That's a pretty impressive group, Herro and Brown Jr certainly magnify the playoff experience and its clearly of value.

The Heat have no PG anyway

Now they add Lillard plus McConnell who is an above average NBA point guard , Nurkic becomes regular season center depth they ignore in the post-season and Damian Lillard well he's Damian Lillard. They keep Jamie Jacquez Jr.

Trailblazers pocket picks

Yeah they are looking for younger players, and I'm sure Caleb Martin and Isiah Jackson are a little lower than they had in mind, but that plus 3 picks and walk away contracts seem like a win given the circumstances and everything on the periphery it gets the deal done.

Suns get 4 instead of 2

The Suns get 4 players instead of 2, Cole Anthony as a PG , Myles Turner at Center, and Nasir Little and Chuma Okele to bolster their front court. They also ship out Cameron Payne and Ish Wainright who they likely don't miss anyway.

The Magic add an upgrade at SG

The Magic move from Gary Harris to the expiring Buddy Hield, may or may not be what they want but certainly a scheme fit and starter. They add Nikola Jovic who played sparingly last season but adds a potential stretch 4 replacing the more experienced but more often injured Chuma Okele. -They net yield 1 first round pick which may or may not be much but the move for Hield certainly helps the "now" and doesn't exactly disrupt their cap space for next season should they chose to use it.

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