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s/timberwolves  
Posted by 
u/forestconfund
 
  

Wolves make play for chip, Mavs recoup from probably losing Brunson, Thunder add big contracts to get a star. Jazz Rebuild.


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Timberwolves

Timberwolves

+3 players ($53.6m),
Cap Impact - $4.7M

+9  Wins

+36.65  MPG

+4.87  Off.

+2.74  Def.

Jazz

Jazz

+2 players ($46.9m) +2 picks,
Cap Impact + $8.7M

-4  Wins

-33.92  MPG

+0.30  Off.

-3.02  Def.

Mavericks

Mavericks

+2 players ($11.9m) +2 picks,
Cap Impact - $19.1M

-7  Wins

-22.71  MPG

-4.00  Off.

-0.44  Def.

*Protection for the 2024 lottery protected 1st to UTA from MIN are weird because of the other picks in this trade, picks that have already been dealt, and the Stepien rule. If the pick falls within the lottery, UTA would receive MIN's 2025 2nd 45-60 Protected (UTA only gets the pick if it is in the top half of the second round). If that doesn't convey the next protection is a 2027 45-60 Protected second. If all three of those picks don't convey, UTA will receive MIN's 2028 2nd regardless of it's draft positioning.

Why the Mavs do it: In order to explain why the Mavericks do this, I need to explain why I don't think they can resign Brunson. The Mavericks have not payed any luxury tax since 2011 and I doubt Cuban will change his habits. He showed willingness to spend in hiss early years, but that was more than a decade ago. The most luxury tax he ever paid was 23.6 M, in 2008. If Brunson is signed for 25 dollars a year (what I think the mavs would have to pay), even with this year being 10 or something weird like that, the mavs would pay 36.5 M. One or two of Brunson, Dinwidde, and Hardaway needs to go if Cuban won't pay. The cost of paying Brunson high higher that I think Cuban would trade Dinwidde and Hardaway, but if Brunson walks, I think Dinwidde and Hardaway stay. Brunson is the best of that trio, but not better then both. That being said, I think this is the best trade deal they will get. Nowell and Prince would both be great in a sixth man role, but the two first rounders which will come after the Wolves window expires. I'd jump on this in a second if I was the Mavs, because when shopping a player who could just go for nothing, you need a bidding war to not get trash, and this is probably the highest bid the Mavs could receive.

Why the Jazz do it: The Jazz are in cap hell. They have two superstars who don't pair well and seem to collapse every playoffs. My solution, get them in slightly worse cap hell and get them another star that won't pair well with Mitchel and that has a history of folding in the playoffs. Let me explain. In most basic terms, Goebert has four years of his contract, D'lo has one. The cap hell ends next year and Cap Space to get a star is freed up. Beasley is thrown in to see if the Jazz can unlock sniper beas that plays like he deserves a max for a month then forget's that the rim is not his target for the next. Pick 19 and the lottery protected pick can help round out the roster. That being said many will dislike this package, but as I'll explain in the T-Wolves section, I don't think Goebert has the market people think. There are only two teams where if I was running I'd make an real push. However, the other team is the Clippers, who I wouldn't want to give up that many player pieces and who are starved of draft picks. The other team is obviously the Wolves, who's offer is better then what I see others offering, and even though he'd be worth more to the Wolves, they'd know his market. This trade is damage-control for the Jazz and free's up a rebuild around Mitchel.

Why the Wolves do it: I'll start with the easy part. Brunson is a 3 years younger D'lo who has real playoff history and the ability to drive. They get a big steal here. Minnesota, even as chip contenders will never be a free agent destination, so they go out and get there guy at a lower price then a similar player under contract. This one is simple. Now for Goebert. He folds on offense in the playoffs. He is vary one-dimensional. But the one thing he never stops doing is rebounding and defense at an elite level. Every team would say yes to that at a better price but with Goebert's salary (aside from the Clips but again, not enough assets they'd be willing to give away) no one else would find it worth it. But why would the Wolves? Because while they choked against Memphis, all young teams do to an extent, and like all young teams a big part of that was shot selection. However, they would have still won the series if the could get ONE rebound in the last 5 minutes of a game. Before that when everyone was going 85% they were fine, but when it was clutch time they could not get a rebound to save their life, Memphis was missing so many shots and getting another chance. Additionally, the Wolves are one of the few teams that don't need Goebert to provide on offence. KAT can play the four almost as well as the 5. This is worth it for MIN and MIN only.

Why the Thunder do it: At some point, Sam Presti has to have and endgame right. He has enough picks to trade for not just a superstar, but a top 5 player in the league. I think his plan is the first of Bron, Curry, Embiid, or Giannis to become disgruntled. In the modern era, a player of that Caliber has never been traded (KD was going to sign with Brooklyn anyway so it didn't reflect his value), it would be unprecedented, but the Thunder have the assets to do it. The time is right, Shai is in his prime, Bron is probably feeling pretty anti-laker right now. Now all they need is a single big contract to trade not named Shai or Derrick (10 M for Derrick Favors isn't enough). Here they set this up, as Favors, Bertans, and Kleber provide the money to match. They also get a few picks along the way.

The Cap Cheese with Muscala: The Thunder needed to send out more money to accept the money they were taking in so Muscala was basically gifted 36.1 M.

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