Tier 2
Floor: Key rotation player with high 3pt volume
Bullseye: Core starter, High volume scorer, top 10 shooter in NBA
Ceiling: Secondary franchise cornerstone, starter and top 3 scorer on a contending team, top 7 shooter in NBA, fringe all-star
OFFENSE
Pass - Grade: 82
Notes: Griffin only averaged 1 assist per game this year at Duke, but he is a significantly better passer than that number indicates. Griffin is patient with the ball in his hands and makes high level reads. Griffin is a good passer out of drives when he attacks closeouts. Griffin has displayed an ability to hit open shooters and rim runners from a standstill and on the move. Griffin is a good movement passer within the flow of an offense. Griffin takes care of the ball at high level, rarely turns it over. Has a great understanding of spacing and relocation, and is good at implementing this into his teammates with his passing and movement. Griffin has shown a knack for getting defenders to commit to him in downhill situations, and then dumping it off to the open big as soon as the window opens. His passing ability will be more apparent in the NBA, as the game will be at a pace that compliments his skillset much better than college basketball did. He was not able to show a fraction of his true passing ability at Duke, and this not proven just by his flashes at Duke but by his HS tapes. Griffin's playmaking has potential to get to the level of a secondary creator, and a floor of being a really solid passer within his role.
Dribble - Grade: 83
Notes: Despite having absurdly broad shoulders, Griffin still is a shifty ball-handler. Griffin has a great functional handle, and is great at balancing his ball-handling with his physicality when attacking. Has a deceivingly deep bag of counters, and is elite timing his use of them. Is elite with his use of jabs, pump fakes, and pivots prior to his attacks. His ability to read defenders in his attacks is at a very, very high level. Already has poised and solidified go-to step backs, hesitations, spins, and more. Never rushed in his attacks, rarely sped up or slowed down. His pace is very consistent and effective, and will absolutely translate to the NBA and will be a factor in his scoring/playmaking ability at the next level. Is a very capable open floor ball-handler. Great at keeping the defense off-balance due to his herky jerky movements. Great at straddling in his size-ups to prevent the defense from being able to force him one way. Footwork on his attacks is elite. Handle is very fluid even though it can look chaotic at times. His handle is not near the level of a primary initiator. He has the capability to be a PnR ball-handler, but isn't there yet. Hasn't displayed much of an ability to change to directions. Is very downhill in his attacks, finds open players when he decelerates but isn't actively able to survey the floor while attacking. Is strangely inconsistent at his ability to attack closeouts. The key issue with Griffin's handling/attack ability is lack of a quick first step. Griffin's elite usage of jabs and pivots negates this in some areas, but the lack of the first step also significantly hinders his ability to burst/explode to the rim. Will be a great complimentary ball-handler, and is a fringe secondary creator. Will thrive in a role next to a high usage guard and a wing or center with playmaking/initiator abilities.
3pt shooting - Grade: 97
Notes: AJ Griffin had arguably the best 3 point shooting season from a freshman in NCAA history:
97th %ile on jumpers (1.27 PPP, 169 poss)
96th %ile on 3s (1.34 PPP, 137 poss)
95th %ile on CNS (1.37 PPP, 105 poss)
95th %ile on OTD (1.13 PPP, 64 poss)
93rd %ile on CNS unguarded (1.54 PPP, 43 poss)
89th %ile on CNS guarded (1.24 PPP, 62 poss)
That type of consistency across the board is absolutely insane. What makes that type of consistency even more preposterous is the fact that his form is so weird and inconsistent. His base is ridiculously wide, his handle guide hand is often over the ball and he has a slingshot release at times. His form and release fluctuate from shot to shot. Nonetheless, Griffin hits at a clip that is impossible to digest. His form has always been inconsistent and wacky, and he has always shot at a preposterous clip. The only way to rationalize Griffin's ability to be one of the best 3 point shooters in the world with a form that suggests he is an inconsistent, poor shooter is that Griffin might have the best touch on his 3 point shot out of anyone in the world not named Stephen Curry. There is plenty of data dating back to HS and EYBL that proves this is no fluke. Griffin only shot 4.1 threes per game this season, a volume that needs to increase. Duke had very limited off-ball movement for Griffin due to their bland offense. Griffin also is not a guy who will be able to fly off of pin downs and staggers the way elite movement shooters do. Griffin is an elite OTD dribble shooter, and has crazy range. Projected his volume in the NBA is a bit difficult because of this, and the best source to turn to for guidance is probably the other crazy buff 6'4 all world shooter in the NBA - Desmond Bane. Bane offered a bit more off-ball movement than Griffin did, but not by much. Bane has better shot fake prowess than Griffin does, but Griffin is better and higher volume OTD. Both have crazy range and similar timing on their releases. Bane still gets a lot of his looks from relocating, trailing, and shoot in defenders faces rather than flying off ball like your traditional 3pt specialist does. Griffin has a 7'0 wingspan compares to Bane's 6'2 wingspan, allowed Griffin to have a much higher release point on his threes than Bane. This high release proves to be especially valuable in his OTD threes. Griffin's highest 3pt attempts in a game this year was against Syracuse, and that was against a 2-3 zone that likely left Griffin foaming at the mouth. Griffin's release is pretty slow, but his ability to hit contested threes at such a high clip makes up for it. Griffin will have to increase his volume in the NBA, and he is one of those guys that no matter how preposterous his 3pt attempts may look it will be very difficult to argue that it was a bad shot. Griffin's slow release does negate some of the gravity that his 3pt shooting ability should create, along with his inconsistency in attacking closeouts. Griffin will likely be one the best 3pt shooters in the NBA on day 1, and that will be immensely valuable to add to any NBA team.
Mid-range shooting - Grade: 92
Notes: Griffin is an outstanding mid-range shooter, his otherworldly touch does is not 3pt exclusive. Griffin shot very well from the mid-range, and displayed a very impressive OTD prowess. Griffin loved the mid-range step-back, elbow pull up, and the not as common fade and floater. Griffin shot all of these very well, and displayed a better ability to create space in the mid-range than from three. When Griffin is stifled on drives and forced to pick-up his dribble, this is a death sentence for almost any players ability to score on that possession. But that is not the case in these instances for Griffin, as he uses his elite balance, strength, and footwork to pivot until he creates enough space to force up a mid-range shot that he hits at a ridiculous clip. Griffin is great at maneuvering in those mid-post no dribble situations in a way that is similar to Jimmy Butler. Griffin should continue to take mid-range shots at a solid volume in the NBA since they are high percentage looks for him and could separate him as a scorer due to the variance in his scoring profile. Many teams will likely live with Griffin taking mid-range pull-ups, which Griffin will love.
Finishing - Grade: 84
Notes: Griffin shot 70% at the rim this year, which is outstanding. Griffin has trouble getting to the rim at times, but when he does get there he is very effective. His shooting ability paired with increased spacing and pace in the NBA should be beneficial to his ability to get more looks at the rim. Griffin is a great vertical athlete and has plenty of ability to finish above the rim. Griffin's strength allows him to absorb, bounce off, and finish through contact at the rim. Griffin has great body control, and great control on his gathers. His explosiveness into his finishes isn't great, but his strength and body control make up for it as long as he isn't finishing over too much length. Griffin is a poor off-hand finisher, will force up finishes with his right hand. Griffin will likely struggle significantly to finish over centers and the help, but will be a solid at finishing through the primary defender on drives. His gather and attacks can be slow, making it easier to pin his rim attempts from behind but they also make his shots trickier to contest for some rim protectors due to his unorthodox timing. Griffin does not like to attack the rim in transition, which is an issue. Griffin only likes to attack in half-court situations, which is pretty strange. While Griffin is a great leaper, his hang time isn't great and that allows high-level shot blockers to stuff him. Griffin relies on his strength to create space and make up for his lack of hang time, but this fails against good, length shot blockers. Griffin's rim volume was very low this season, and it should improve in the NBA but not significantly. He is an effective and efficient slasher and finisher, but the volume is not where it needs to be yet and has clear limitations in this area.
Off-ball playmaking - Grade: 88
Notes: Griffin is a great off-ball mover. Griffin is a smart, opportunistic, and willing cutter. Griffin has a great ability to relocate, and his relocation gravity opens up a lot for his teammates. Griffin always fills the correct lane and maximizes his teams spacing. Griffin is an elite strong side cutter. As soon as Griffin's defenders helps on a high post touch or is playing to high up on Griffin while he's in the strong side corner Griffin know exactly when and where to cut to for him to be in scoring position and to make the pass as easy as possible for his teammate. Griffin's shooting gravity played a massive factor in this, and Griffin's understanding of his gravity along with his maximization of it are a big reason of why he projects to be a truly phenomenal complimentary player within an NBA offense.
Offensive rebounding - Grade: 75
Notes: Griffin's brute strength, wide frame, and wingspan provide tools for Griffin to be a very solid rebounder from the wing position. Motor fluctuates along with his tendency to crash, but was an effective offensive rebounder in his limited crashes.
Offensive Summary: 90
AJ Griffin is going to be a very good offensive player in the NBA, with a realistic ceiling of being great. Griffin will be one of the best shooters in the NBA from day 1. Griffin is already an elite isolation player. Griffin has the highly coveted ability of elite OTD three point shooting and shot creation. Griffin is a smart player and makes good, easy reads. There is a lot to be encouraged about in his abilities as a passer and playmaker. Griffin's brute strength and touch make him a menace in the mid-post who can score in creative, unorthodox ways that only very few players can. Griffin projects to be a truly awesome complimentary offensive player. His efficiency and ability to be effective on fluctuating volume are extremely valuable. Griffin's 3pt volume needs to increase, and with his limited abilities off traditional 3pt specialist off-ball movement and slow release there may be some challenges in reaching the desired volume for how great of a 3 point shooter Griffin is. Griffin having one of the best touches on his 3pointer and jump shot in general is too valuable of a quality to ignore. That paired with Griffin's proven OTD shot creation ability and flashes of playmaking along with the fact that he's built like the Terminator offer a ton to be excited about. Griffin will excel playing alongside high level initiators in a secondary creation role. Griffin's injury history in high school along with just how blatantly weird of a shot-taker and shot-maker he is will scare teams, but his sample size is more than big enough to be sold on his elite shot-making ability. The concerns about Griffin's ability to get off looks is one the over drawn, as he is so unpredictable in his movements and has such a deep bag of counters and is comfortable pulling up from anywhere on the floor. His ability to be a smart spacer and cutter are two very important reasons of why he will be a great complimentary offensive player and will thrive playing alongside an offensive engine or next tier high-level initiator. Griffin is very smart and developed wink-wink offensive relationships with many of his teammates, knowing how to play off of each other at a high level. Griffin's ability to do this in Duke's Piccadilly offense is impressive. The consistency and development of his ability to attack closeouts (overcoming his poor first step will make this difficult) and finishing at the rim are main swing skills for Griffin in terms of reaching his ceiling as an offensive player, along with how often and consistently he is able to manipulate defenses as a playmaker and if he can reach reliable secondary creator status. If Griffin is able to get to a high level on good volume in one of those categories he will be an undeniably awesome offensive player, and if he is able to get to a high level in both of those categories Griffin may be an all-star.
Defense
Engagement - Grade: 83
Notes: Griffin consistently displayed a sense of urgency and motor on the defensive end, but his attentiveness and awareness wavered a bit. Griffin showed the correct mindset on defense, and displayed a commitment to being engaged on that side of the ball with his intensity and communication. Griffin displayed a will to be effective on the defensive end, and that is important.
Containment - Grade: 69
Notes: Griffin had stretches of truly atrocious defense when defending in space. Had an awkward, low stance. Slow, heavy feet. Easily shifted and crossed. Struggled mightily to stay in front of shifty, quick guards. Poor positioning on closeouts and chose awkward and ineffective angles in his 1 on 1 defense. Griffin plants his feet way to often effectively taking him out of position. Griffin's recovery defense showed flashes, but was ultimately poor for the large majority of the season. Griffin's positioning and closeouts are fixable, and Griffin could learn to play a more give and take style of defense which would maximize his length and core strength and take a significant amount of pressure of his poor lateral ability (which could also improve). Griffin is very difficult to screen and is a lock down post defender who can't be moved off his spot, which are reasons to be encouraged and prevent him from being a complete and total negative in this area. Griffin has the tools to improve significantly in this area, but he was an abysmal POA perimeter defender at Duke and has a very long way to go to getting to a league average level. Griffin was much better in this area in high school, offering another sign of hope that he can return to a competent level.
Team Defense - Grade: 80
Notes: Griffin is a solid team defender. Griffin communicates very well, his best team defense quality. Griffin is good at stunting off ball and blowing up actions. Griffin. Griffin is a presence in the passing lanes, and is typically on time with his rotations. His off-ball awareness was poor at times, but that was the case with the majority of Duke's perimeter defenders. Does little, winning things that matter throughout the course of a game on this end.
Rim Protection - Grade: 81
Notes: Griffin was a prolific shot blocker in high school, and showed flashes of solid rim protection from the wing position at Duke. Griffin's wingspan and verticality are very good and allow him to be an effective rotating help shot contester in the paint. Averaged 0.6 blocks this year, with a solid amount of high-level rotation rim contests. Griffin's timing and positioning aren't consistent in his rim contests.
Playmaking - Grade: 74
Notes: Griffin averaged 1.1 stocks per game this year. Griffin's length and aggressiveness allowed for him to be somewhat effective in the stock department. Griffin's length should make him more effective in this area, but Griffin's top defensive priority needs to be his positioning before he can start gambling on defense.
Versatility - Grade: 75
Notes: Griffin should be guarding 2s and 3s, but will likely be most effective at guarding 4s early on his career. Griffin will certainly be guarding 2s and 3s most of the time though, and I don't think Griffin can get credit for being a versatile defender because he is too slow to check quick guards so he will be forced to guard bigger players (which his strength and length will make him effective at). If Griffin ever does become a competent guard defender, then he will be a versatile defender.
Defensive Rebounding - Grade: 82
Notes: Griffin is a good wing defensive rebounder, and this an area where he could really make himself valuable. Griffin has a solid motor, a good nose for the ball, and all the tools (strength and length) to be in prime position to rebound the ball at a high-level, especially when crashing from the wing position. Griffin averaged 13.7 DREB% at Duke this year, which is pretty solid for a wing like Griffin.
Defensive Summary: 70
Notes: Griffin's inability to defend in space is a huge problem, which has the potential to significantly decrease his overall ceiling as a player. Improving in this area should be Griffin's #1 overall priority. Griffin has shown he has a solid IQ, loves to be physical, displayed intensity and motor, communication skills, and the intangibles of a capable NBA defender. Griffin is not the type of player that a coach should have to hide on defense, and if he is not paired next to a good defensive point guard (which is very likely) then Griffin may struggle to stay on the court in crunch time situations early on in his career. Griffin has shown that he can maximize his strength on the defensive end, but has not shown that he can maximize his length and vertical ability. There's plenty of reasons for hope with Griffin on the defensive end: his HS tape, his natural gifts, and his intangibles. Duke's defense was really bad considering their talent this year, and hopefully Griffin fell victim to that. Griffin's atrocious POA defense was clearly very concerning no matter how you look at it, and is holding him back from being a truly elite prospect. Griffin needs to land in a good situation for him with a staff that will prioritize his defensive development, or this could be an issue that significantly deters his career's potential.
Measurables: 95
No combine measurements.
Height: 6'6
Weight: 222
Wingspan: 7 ft
Elite frame and strength
Functional Athleticism: 74
Great vertical leap
Ok open floor speed
Ok explosiveness
Ok burst
Poor lateral quickness
Poor first step