The Rundown:
Purely as an archetype for a prospect, Wesley is perhaps in the top 5 of this draft. If you told me there was a 6’5 guard with good touch, a +5 wingspan, and generates paint touches like nobody's business I would immediately draft him in the lottery. In most drafts, the other little things that bog down the general idea of a prospect will sink their draft stock a little bit. However, here we are, it appears that Notre Dames Blake Wesley has picked a good year to be a fairly productive freshman.
To start, his offensive game. In my opinion, the most important thing a lead guard can and should do is create consistent paint touches. The paint is the most efficient area for an offensive player in basketball, and the defense is fully aware of this. The ensuing collapse of the defense upon the player that has slithered his way into the restricted area creates open shots for the rest of the team, and all of a sudden you have an effective offense. This is where Wesley excels primarily. He has excellent burst, either off of the catch or the dribble, using his long strides and deceptively strong frame to perfection. Wesley has great fluidity when driving, using his flexibility to almost always get a semi open look. His handle isn’t excellent by any means, but when going downhill he is capable of taking care of the ball. I don’t know his percentages in the paint, but it seems that Wesley consistently uses his good touch, long arms, excellent bounce, and solid patience to score at a good clip down there. He isn’t advanced in his reads when attacking downhill quite yet though, he’s good but you can 100% see tunnel vision take over at times. Luckily for Wesley, he has all the tools to be capable at either guard spot, so high level playmaking probably isn’t essential. One area that is especially tantalizing is his ability to post up smaller guards; he is always actively mismatch hunting. He uses his good technique and long arms to effectively negate any defense when he has his back to the basket, and his first step on spins or other drives from the post up is still alive and well.
Onto the next level in three level scoring, the midrange. There isn’t much to say here besides he is quite talented. Blake can stop on a dime and pull up, and gets exceptional elevation on his jump shots. He can fade away with the best of them, and is great when he can get to the nail and pull up for a free throw line jumpshot. This is also where I think his passing is the best; he keeps his eyes open and surveys the floor with wisdom and composure far beyond his years. It appears he has a solid floater game, nothing exceptional but again his touch shows. However, the midrange is also the start of one of the most noticeable flaws in Wesley's game; the shooting form. It isn’t bad, but it appears that he has a lot of shooting forms that aren’t bad, while most good shooters just have one. It is a terribly inconsistent jump shot, with no uniform footwork or upper body movement. This, on top of his very meh off ball movement, makes me worry that he’ll be a little bit of a project to start his career because he won’t be aiding the development of other players, leading to some limited minutes early on. Right now he needs the ball in his hands to be successful; he can hit an off the catch three but he’s obviously better off the bounce, he can attack off the catch but he’s obviously better after lulling his man to sleep. His isolation game that leads to a lot of mid range pull ups is great, but for him to properly actualize his tremendous potential he’ll need a development context that can foster his gifts.
His three point shot is excellent, don’t let the numbers fool you. His degree of difficulty on a lot of his threes is insane, with a lot of late shot clock heroics. Sometimes his shot selection on the pull up threes is a bit iffy, especially factoring in the fact his bonkers burst can get him paint touches about every play, but his elevation and touch are phenomenal. Again, the shooting form makes me a bit worried, I hope that goes away when he isn’t a first option, but I fully buy the shot. The free throw numbers are a bit of a hindrance but I am still confident that Blake Wesley will be an above average shooter at the next level, and a far above average pull up shooter.
His defense is far and away the most unheralded part of his game, he is a legitimate lock down defender in my eyes. Wesley moves his feet with a purpose, shutting off driving lanes for opposing ball handlers. In the game against Kentucky, Wesley absolutely swallowed TyTy Washington when guarding up at the point of attack; his long arms and quick feet were just too much. One of the most undervalued traits on defense, a quick first step to not get blown by, is Wesley's bread and butter. His reflexes can more than match or exceed that of his opponents, and this is with an exceptionally high offensive load. Navigating screens is an essential skill at the next level, and Wesley can get skinny with the best of them, negating all but the best screen setters. He is sometimes a bit undisciplined, jumping at fakes or taking inopportune gambles, but I expect the majority of those problems to go away with age and experience. One thing that does worry me, perhaps I am putting too much stock into it, is his lack of stock (steal+blocks) numbers. In theory, someone at the college level with his physicals and defensive wherewithal should be swatting a bit more shots and grabbing and going a bit more, especially with his dominant transition game. A stock rate of 2.4% is bad, no way around it, his lack of chaos creation at that end is an issue. Hopefully this is just me overanalyzing the numbers, but perhaps its showing that his defense won’t translate perfectly to the next level.
At the end of the day, the highs when watching Wesley are simply too much to ignore. A dominant isolation scorer, with flashes of superb feel, all wrapped with a bow consisting of phenomenal man to man defense. It’s tough to find anyone with his combination of pure scoring feel and bewildering burst, and in this draft? That is someone that I a more than happy to take a bet on.
The Rundown:
Insane burst, great scoring mindset, developing passing vision but the flashes are there in spades, locks down on defense but not a havoc wreaker, needs to iron out his shooting form and off ball movement.
Shades of:
Dejounte Murray, Jeremy Lamb, Jordan Clarkson (?)
