Keegan Murray 6'8" 215 lbs

Keegan Murray flashed as a hustle and defense freshman aiding the Luka Garza led Hawkeyes and took an astronomical leap as a sophomore. Murray displayed the ever coveted defensive versatility and shooting the NBA revolves around today. Murray should immediately be an effective 2 way forward who has the capacity to guard 2-4 and shoot 40 percent from 3 down the road in his NBA career as an off ball player who learned how to be THE MAN in college which can be beneficial.

Strengths:

• Fits the modern stretch 4 role to perfection.

• Excellent defensive versatility and a high motor to boot.

• Due to being the man in college, he has learned to score in a plethora of ways (effective in the post and as a catch and shoot threat).

• Really good rebounder (9.8 rpg per 36 mins).

• Fluid functional athlete who can handle the ball in transition. (97th percentile in transition).

• Can be a secondary rim protector at NBA level.

• Intelligent and mature player.

• Productive defender who gets steals, blocks and rebounds at a high level.

Concerns:

• Not explosive as an athlete (below the rim finisher).

• Rarely beat college defenders to the rim with speed in half court setting despite being an excellent runner of the court in transition.

• Not the most gifted passer but does appear willing.

• Shot poorly on corner 3's (33% from left corner, 30.8% from right corner).

Keegan Murray seems to be one of the safest picks in the NBA to succeed at some level. To what level he succeeds depends largely on how well he shoots the ball from range. In his sophomore year he shot 37.9% on catch and shoot 3's. Murray projects as a plug and play 2 way forward who elevates the team he plays for but does not project as a go-to scorer or more than a complimentary piece to a team that has its star already found. He reminds me of a calmer Marcus Morris or a smaller Al Horford.

The Rundown:

These are my least favourite scouting reports to write, the ones where you’re a bit lower than consensus on a player that you still like. I like Keegan Murray, I really do! When I see him as a top 5 pick in big boards or mocks I am still just…befuddled? That may sound too mean but to me, you’re asking him to be something that he just isn’t if that is where you have him slotted. So, if it sounds like I am being overly critical of Keegan, remember that it is just as a response to popular opinions, remember that today I am simply acting as the indispensable opposition.

The first thing that we have to know when evaluating Keegan Murray is that his role will not translate 1 to 1 from college basketball to the NBA. In college, he is clearly the best player on his team, which is something that I do not expect in any way shape or form at the next level. In college, he is playing players that are significantly shorter and slower and weaker and worse than he is, which is again not exactly the expectation when he is going to be playing in the best league in the world. The majority of his scoring comes from pure physical dominance, so his offensive game, while pretty on paper, will have to be evaluated in a way that goes against a lot of the stats that we have.

To start the actual evaluation process, lets look at the most appealing part of his game, the defense. I personally think that Keegan was a bit better on the defensive end last year, as a ground coverage maestro erasing a lot of open looks that his opponents thought they had. Keegan was crucial for the Hawkeyes not being the actual worst defense in the country last year with his anticipation and quick feet. This year, Keegan has been good, but not quite the same monster as he was his freshman year. He appears to be considerably slower on defense, with his ground coverage abilities taking a hit. This decrease in speed has correlated with an increase in strength which has helped with his proficiency with guarding up in a lineup, but greatly decreased his team defense and overall versatility. However, I still hold out some hope. There is a chance that his defense has decreased less due to the physical side of things, and more so because of the greatly increased and non translatable offensive workload. If, once he gets to the NBA, he has less to do on offense and more to do on defense, there is a solid chance he follows these instructions solidly. If I were to evaluate based on just what I have seen this year though, the lateral quickness doesn’t seem spectacular by any means, he can guard players his size or bigger but guarding down screams blow by opportunity to opposing guards. He has great recovery talent, using his long strides and solid +3 wingspan to track the ball with great proficiency. Keegan has a ton of trouble navigating screens, where his lack of agility and slower feet rears its ugly head. Stuff like that makes me think he will travel down the Robert Covington path of defense if that does end up being his calling card. He will be fine on man to man defense, with solid hip mobility and a strong frame to body up as maybe a small ball 5 at times, but where his real skill is obviously off the ball wreaking havoc with his weak side rim protection and team defense. I am given even more confidence in this evaluation with the 10.2% stock rate and 3.5 (????) stocks per game, both of which are basically bonkers. It is necessary to look past some of the tape on his defense this year and focus more on the talent he showed last year on that end.

Offensively is where more of the questions are for me. To start with his strengths, he is dominant in transition as the ball handler or cutter. He knows exactly which lanes to fill and uses his strength and good, functional, vertical athleticism to be a force in the fast break. Keegan is relatively quick for his size with his processing speed and uses it well when blazing down the court, reading where the defender is shifting and then acting accordingly. His passing, while nothing elite, is, once again, functional, and he can hit the cutters around him with solid accuracy. While not quite the vertical athlete that Obi Toppin is, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Keegan has similar transition capabilities at some point. This is where a large portion of his scoring comes from though, which can naturally lead to some worrying about how, in a slower paced playoff, his scoring will translate. In the half court, he pitches his tent in the midpost and plays a triple threat dominant game. His midrange scoring has been really solid, even with a slower and lower than ideal jump shot. While playing off the ball, Keegan is great at getting to his spots and, almost more importantly, getting to spots where his teammates can easily get him the ball. Tangentially, that is where Keegan tends to excel. There aren’t many of the “little things” that Keegan doesn’t excel at, there are so many ways that he leads teams to wins. He sets good screens, he cuts hard, he boxes out, he can trace the rebound really well, he's always in a defensive stance, everything! This is what keeps me happy with the idea of Keegan Murray as a prospect, even without the star upside that some people see. However, there is still 1 thing that is essential for his NBA career to work out. He is hitting threes at a solid rate right now, and seems to have good touch, but in order for this selection to be warranted, his three point percentage must go up. He will primarily be looked at as a 3 and D player, and the 3 just has to translate. His mid range and power slashing game just won´t translate very well to the next level, due to the extreme efficiency needed for the midrange to make sense to a franchise, and his power slashing won´t work nearly as well when he isn´t just physically dominant to everyone he faces. He will be able to attack a closeout and post up on a mismatch, but DO NOT expect a heavy workload in the midrange.

At the end of the day, Keegan is fundamentals. He´ll make good decisions that will help a team win, and due to his reported hard work and dedication, I expect him to develop and improve in the ways his coach sees fit, even with his age. His handle is fundamental, his movement is fundamental, his passing and shooting are fundamental, so even if I don't see an all star upside, he's a guy that teams don't want to say no to.

The Synopsis:

Fundamentally sound everywhere on the court, he has some agility troubles on defense even with his high IQ and solid physical tools. On offense, he needs to find a way to be a positive in the half court with a smaller role, but that is easy enough to project. Does a lot of things well. Shades of: Shawn Marion, DJJ, a bit of Paul Milsap, a splash of Robert Covington, and a sprinkle of Cam Johnson

Keegan Murray is a baller. He uses his combination of size and athleticism to get to the rim. Last season I didn't see him as an NBA prospect, since his contributions were masked out by Garza, and Wieskamp. However, he was probably the best player in college basketball last season. He is a solid shooter, and has great court awareness. He always plays under control, and has good fundamental skills. The knock on Keegan is that he's good at everything, but not great at anything. In the right system however, he can become more than a role player.

Comparison: Scottie Pippen Lite

Projected Draft Range: 5-10

Best Team Fits: San Antonio, Sacramento, Portland

Height 6’8

Weight 225 lbs

Wingspan 6’11

DOB 8/19/00 (Draft Age: 21 years old)

Pre-Draft Team Iowa Hawkeyes

Offense

• 51/30/76 splits. A developing scorer with potential at all three levels.

• Perimeter shooting mechanics need will speed up. The shooting process has too many moving parts. Reason to believe he should be a very strong perimeter threat in due time.

• Very good finisher.

• High IQ scoring in a multitude of ways - spot up, transition, cutting, putbacks, post-ups, and some Pick & Roll man are all ways he manufactures scoring.

• Loves to crash the offensive glass. Size and length allows for him to be a tremendous offensive rebounder, 1.6 in 18 mpg.

• Not a shot creator at this stage, hard to see it ever being a major part of his game.

• Really good athlete in transition, couple that with the size and he will be a problem for opposing teams.

• Heads up ducking in and sealing, may be able to get an occasional bucket here in the league.

• Working floater through the lane and a nice turn around hook.

• Glimpses of a potential swiss army knife scorer.

• Not a playmaker at all at this stage, but only 1.4 TO per 40 shows a very capable ball protector.

• Some misdirection and shiftiness with momentum attacking.

• Comfortable finishing with either hand.

• Convincing and effective mid-range.

• Low turnovers, but not much of a playmaker. Will make the right pass though.

• Incredibly active player, always looking to initiate something to help the offense. Will be hard to have a stagnant offense with him on the floor.

• Outstanding IQ is based upon his already professional game preparation skills. Heavily uses scouting reports to make in game reads on opposing personnel, something that makes him even more NBA ready.

Defense

• Huge stat stuffing totals - 11.3 RBD, 1.9 STL & 2.8 BLK per 40

• Potential rim protector, will meet you at the rim.

• Murray has positive defensive versatility moving forward. Pretty good hip fluidity. Will be able to defend in space, on the wings and handle most bigs.

• Really does a nice job of positioning himself in places to get a hand on the ball and deny the post. High IQ.

• A playmaker who makes great defensive reads.

• Probably not enough foot speed to guard 1's or stick in front of some 2's.

Swing Factors

• Defensive Versatility - He should be able to guard 2-4 comfortably, but if he can't move with enough fluidity he will be less limited than originally thought.

• Shot Creation - Not confident this is something he will have with any sort of regularity. The rest of his game is fairly safe and projectable, but if this begins to manifest in unforeseen ways we are talking about a player closer to a star than a starter.

Role

• A two-way forward who dabbles in a little bit of everything and provides outstanding basketball IQ.

• LOW: Murray's athleticism doesn't play as well in the NBA as people hoped. He is less versatile guarding primarily 4's. His shooting is doesn't pick up where it left off and last year is revealed as an outlier. Still Murray brings IQ, preparation, cutting, transition play among some other skills. He is still a contributing player to a rotation.

• HIGH: Offensively Murray is a swiss army knife doing a multitude of things. He crashes the glass, cuts, screens, knocks down C&S and PnP. But the major surprise is that he begins to create for himself more than expected making him closer to a number one option offensively than a number three. Defensively his versatility shines and he even can handle some of the 1's in space. His stock numbers remain stuffed and because of that he frequently gets to shine in transition. Murray is constantly putting pressure on All-Star ballots and All-Defensive teams becoming a fringe star and a starter in a system that is always a threat to make deep playoff runs.

Ranking Scale:

Athleticism: 6/8

3pt shot: 7/10

Finishing: 8/10

Handle: 6/10

Playmaking: 4/8

Defensive Versatility: 6/10

Defensive Positioning: 4/8

Rebounding: 5/6

NBA Fit: 7/10

Total Score: 53/80

Tier 2

Floor: Secondary starter

Bullseye: Core starter

Ceiling: Secondary franchise cornerstone, top 4 player on championship contending team

OFFENSE

Pass - Grade: 80

Notes: Murray is a very solid, but low volume passer. Murray had an outrageous usage for a player who doesn't initiate offense at 29.7%. Murray averaged just 1.5 APG and a 10.1 AST% despite having this huge usage rate, but sported an elite turnover rate of only 5.7% on just 1.1 TOs per game. Murray doesn't have tunnel vision, can hit cutters situationally, plays within himself as a passer, and passes well within the flow of an offense. Murray makes the safe and simple reads at an incredibly high rate, which is so impressive when his usage rate is taken into account. Murray had a very PnR possession this season which were enough to suggest this isn't a role suited for him. Murray isn't a player who will manipulate defenses, but will be someone who can slot right into a wing role in any NBA offense and pass well within any system.

Dribble - Grade: 80

Notes: Murray has a very simple yet effective handle. Murray takes care of the ball at an extremely high level, but isn't creating anything off the dribble. Murray uses his size, length, and footwork to create space - he simply uses his handle to get from point A to point B. Murray is a good functional ball-handler, and can handle the ball in open space under control. Murray likes to get into Barkleys on his perimeter attacks, and can attack closeouts despite not having the best first step due to his shooting gravity. Murray will likely have to dribble more in the NBA than he did in college, so he should prioritize adding some perimeter go to moves. Murray doesn't have any shake or shiftiness, and won't get into size ups or break down - he solely relies on his size and functional handle to go to his spots, which may be more difficult to do in the NBA.

3pt shooting - Grade: 87

Notes: Murray shot 39.8% on 4.7 attempts per game this season, with most of his looks coming from above the break and the top of the key. Murray has really solid mechanics and great touch on his 3 pointer. Murray is good at shooting with a hand in his face as long he is squared up to the hoop, and Murray is good at speeding up his release to beat closeouts and still shooting at a high clip. Murray gets almost all of his 3 point looks in C&S scenarios - popping, trailing, spacing. Murray is not a good movement 3 point shooter. Murray needs to work on his movement shooting in order to become a true high volume 3 point shooter in the NBA. Murray needs to improve his corner 3 volume and percentage - Murray went just 4/12 and 4/13 from the corners this season. Murray will likely be stationed in the corner much more in the NBA, and will need to become knockdown from there. Murray's 3 point shooting projects to be a big part of his scoring profile in the NBA, and all signs point to him being a great standstill C&S three point shooter and spacer.

Mid-range shooting - Grade: 75

Notes: Murray is often labeled as 3 level scorer, but the mid-range is a small part of his scoring profile. Murray shot mid-range shots on a low volume and percentage - 18/55 (32.7%). Murray's only consistent mid-range look was his post-fade from the corners, which he shot much better than his other mid-range looks. This shot is likely the only mid-range shot that Murray will bring with him to the NBA at the start of his career.

Finishing - Grade: 90

Notes: Murray shot an awesome 66.3% at the rim this season on a truly preposterous volume - 220/332. Murray got a small portion of his attempts by attacking downhill from the perimeter, something will need to change in the NBA. Murray got the majority of his looks by posting up smaller player, and angling himself for position for entry passes when he's fronted in the post. Murray played a lot of small ball 5, allowing him to post up very often. Murray was an absolute beast in the post - great footwork, touch, and variety. Murray can go above, through, or around the defense using his combination of touch, strength, and footwork. Murray will undoubtedly be able to punish smaller wings in the post, and could command a few empty corner designed post-ups per game if his team is willing to draw up such sets for a likely role player. Murray has a solid deceleration ability and good touch on his downhill finishes, his volume and efficiency just aren't there on these looks and this is something will very likely change in the NBA. The adjustment shouldn't be a difficult one for Murray, as he wasn't a bad downhill finisher - just not elite on high volume like he was with his post ups. Murray doesn't have much downhill burst or explosiveness, which could be in hurdle as he improves at attacking closeouts. Murray finishing at the rim won't be a huge adjustment, but getting there may be. Murray should continue to Barkley from perimeter attacks in the NBA, this is a great to space the perimeter and still get post up opportunities. Barkleying isn't too common in the NBA due to most players having poor post-up efficiencies, but Murray is anomaly in this regard and could bring this unique facet of his game to the NBA. Murray also is great at just lowering his shoulder and using his brute force to get to his spot, all while still being under control - this is the likely path to his most common form of finishing early on his career. Murray's poise, footwork, touch, and ability to finish through contract will allow for Murray to be a good NBA finisher despite potential downhill attacking struggles early on in his career.

Off-ball playmaking - Grade: 88

Notes: Murray is a really solid off-ball player. Murray is a good cutter, spacer, screen, and positions himself for scoring opportunities very well off the ball. Murray should improve his tendency/ability to relocate for threes.

Offensive rebounding - Grade: 89

Notes: Murray averaged a huge 2.9 OREB per game with a 9.8 OREB%. These are incredible numbers for a wing, but Murray played a lot of small ball 5 and spent a lot of time in the post which is why he was in position to crash so often. Murray's offensive rebounding ability is still very good - Murray is great at using his hips to gain position and is very physical in his boxouts.

Offensive Summary: 88

Murray is a very well-rounded offensive player, with very few weaknesses. Murray lacks traditional off the dribble shot creation, movement shooting, and athleticism to project him to be a star offensive player. Murray projects to be a very efficient offensive player, who is going to excel in a complimentary role. It will be an adjustment for Murray to go back to having a small usage rate, and to be stationed on the perimeter far more often than the post. Murray is will do well in an NBA setting despite having a more traditional skillset, due to his game's overall fluidity and versatility. Murray can be deployed on offense in a number of ways, and be efficient regardless of his role. Murray doesn't need anything designed for him in order for him to be an effective offensive player, but can also produce at a high level in a situation where is asked to have an increased role. Murray will be a complimentary player in a starting lineup, but can have some offense and post isolations ran for him when he plays with second units. Murray will dominate mismatches due to him actually being a great post presence, not just being a shooter with size. Murray played so much like a stretch five at Iowa, and will likely play exclusively on the perimeter in the NBA which may result in Murray having an adjustment period. Murray's solid instincts and ability to take care of the ball along with his knockdown C&S three point ability will allow for Murray to be a plus offensive player immediately even as adjusts to the NBA and begins to carve out a consistent role for himself. Murray projects to be a great complimentary wing on offense, with an extremely high floor but very low ceiling which is why he is a tier below the blue chip prospects.

Defense

Engagement - Grade: 89

Notes: Murray is a consistently engaged defender. Has a plus motor and has a great, locked-in approach on the defensive end.

Containment - Grade: 85

Notes: Murray has great lateral mobility for his size and he can stay with quicker guards and wings. Murray is able to stay with them and contest shots, but isn't much of a deterrent yet. Murray's nimble feet and ability to stay with guards is the key factor in his projection as POA defender, he can definitely defend in space. Murray needs to improve his ability to beat defenders to the spot, and absorb drives with his strong center of gravity to take the next step as a perimeter defender. Right now, Murray is still plenty good enough as POA defender to play in a switchable scheme. Murray is also a very solid recovery defender, which is always extremely valuable to any perimeter defender and any team's defense.

Team Defense - Grade: 88

Notes: Murray is a great off-ball defender because of his IQ. Murray is very rarely late on rotations, and is great at covering a lot of ground off the ball. Murray is an intense defender that is incredibly consistent into his game to game awareness and production. Murray is undeniably a plus off the ball, and has shown he is capable of doing wide variety of ball tasks such as being a chaser. Murray is going to a plus defender off the ball due to his IQ and consistent awareness and activity, along with solid physical tools.

Rim Protection - Grade: 89

Notes: Murray averaged a phenomenal 1.9 blocks per game this season, with a 6.4% block rate. Murray has great timing on contests, is often early on his rotations, stays vertical, and does a good job of using his arms to contest shots without fouling. Murray has a knack for getting a hand on the ball. Murray uses his 7'6 wingspan and great coordination to time his contests, something that will surely translate in the NBA. His lateral mobility and length with allow his rim protection to translate nicely.

Playmaking - Grade: 94

Notes: Murray is a stocks machine, averaging 3.1 stocks per game. Murray uses his length, IQ, positioning, hands, and timing to rack up stocks.

Versatility - Grade: 85

Notes: Murray isn't good enough as the PnR low man to be a reliable small 5, but he certainly has the potential to get there. Murray will be able to switch 3-5 right away, with potential to switch 1-5. Murray can guard either wing position, and can excel in any defensive scheme.

Defensive Rebounding - Grade: 84

Notes: Murray is a physical and reliable defensive rebounder, who has solid motor and timing on his crashes. Murray's rebounding ability will translate to the NBA nicely.

Defensive Summary: 85

Notes: Murray will be a very solid NBA defender. Murray will likely never be a guy that you will want to put on the other team's best offensive player, but he will be guy you are more than happy to have on your defense. Murray's consistent approach on defense, IQ, and instincts are all big pluses. Murray is always going to be aggressive and effective in his shot contests at the rim, utilizing his 7'6 wingspan. Murray will be able to stick and switch onto guard situationally due to his solid lateral mobility and good recovery ability. Murray is a very solid off-ball defender who is always on time in his rotations and has great overall awareness. Murray will contribute on defense right away, and does ton of positive little things. Murray isn't athletic or physical enough to become a star defensive player, but he will be plus defensive player for his whole career and that's very valuable. Murray has no major weaknesses on defense and isn't exploitable, and that is very valuable as well. Murray's IQ and versatility will make him a very valuable playoff defender.

Measurables: 90

Height: 6'8

Weight: 225

Wingspan: 7'1

Good frame

Functional Athleticism: 75

Good lateral mobility

Below average open court speed

Below average vertical

Below average burst

Below average explosiveness

I'm not a Keegan Murray fan but I don't hate him either. He's the true modern tweener. He doesn't have the quickness to defend players out on the perimeter and he doesn't have the size or the athleticism to be a rim/paint protector. Which is a shame because he does have good defensive instincts and feel. His offense is ok, I mean he'll likely be an offball player throughout his career. He's a very mediocre playmaker and only has one shot creation move (spin to his left) but will very likely be a good rotation NBA player due to his spot up shooting and his cutting. Also pretty old for a prospect so not expecting significant improvement.

Best fits: Charlotte if they lose Bridges, San Antonio, Atlanta if they lose Collins

Murray has been one of the best players in college basketball this season as a sophomore. He was overshadowed by Naismith award winner Luka Garza and sharpshooting wing Joe Wieskamp last season, both players were drafted into the league. His offensive game won’t translate perfectly into the NBA he still should be a top 7 pick in the draft.

Murray has been dominant all season long offensively, he’s first in the nation in total points scored and 4th in PPG with 23.5. He can score at all three levels efficiently but the majority of his points come on the inside. However, his dominance against smaller players could be a detriment to his success in the NBA. His game will need adjusting but as he is a good shooter as well as finishing inside I think that he’ll handle the change just fine.

On defense Murray is just as good if not better, and this part of his game will translate a lot better into the NBA. He’s a big guy at 6’8 97kg (though I expect that he’s probably closer to 105kg) but has the speed to keep up with smaller guys, now not to the point where he can stay with the faster guards but he can be trusted to handle most forwards and slower guards. He gets a solid amount of steals with 1.3 a game and is a very good interior defender, using his +3 wingspan and defensive instincts to average almost 2 blocks per game.

OVERVIEW: Murray is well rounded offensively and is a very good scorer. His playmaking could use some work if he wants to become a legitimate superstar but that’s not what he’s being utilised for in the Iowa offence so who knows, maybe he’ll develop in that area. Defensively he plays with grit and intelligence which will help him when matched against strong 7 footers in the NBA. I don’t think Murray will quite reach stardom but he can definitely be a 3rd option on a championship team.

COMPARISON: Young Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris with better D

Age: 21

Coming out of Iowa, Murray is an extremely well rounded player. He has great splits with 63% from the field and 40% from three. His stroke is really nice and he needs no time to get his shot off. He’s very good at movement shooting, catching it off the screen like a wing. He also has NBA range. He’s become a much better shooter as the season has progressed. He’s super long with a nice frame. He can push the ball himself or run the floor. His role offensively will translate well to the NBA. He’s also no slouch defensively, as he can guard almost everyone. Keegan has great anticipation speed and stifles open looks with his quick speed. While Iowa isn’t known as a mediocre defensive team, Keegan’s the only one holding them above horrible. However, his lateral quickness is subpar and that has coincided with added strength. He has a nice wingspan but struggles on passing through screens sometimes.

In conclusion, Keegan is great on both ends as a great shooter and driver and a lockdown perimeter defender, however he has flaws on both ends as well.