The Rundown:

The old saying goes, “fortune favors the bold'', and the draft selection of Patrick Baldwin Jr. certainly puts that proverb to the test. He made one of the boldest decisions a 5 star high school prospect has ever made in going to the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, to be coached by his father. This makes scouting him exponentially more difficult, but a good type of difficult. This is a case study on competition and usage that is painful but necessary. So, into the meat of it.

Offensively is where the broad majority of his appeal lies. At 6’10, his scoring package is ridiculously versatile, with just about every shot in his disposal. Easily one of the best shooting prospects in the class, he has legitimate movement shooting ability, be it off of screens, pin downs, or trailing in transition. He can shoot off the dribble or off the catch, off a standstill or with fades and leans (there are some bad misses to start the year but until it gets past the range of small sample sizes we’re gonna let it slide). Whenever you think that you are gonna lower your expectations about PBJ, he does a 3 dribble move combo to hit a mid range fade over the outstretched arms of a defender and you are back on the bandwagon. Outside of scoring, there is less going for him, but as a 6’10 dominant scorer the rest tends to not matter if he is at least average at the ancillary skills (think Michael Porter Jr.). However, it would take a fair bit of improvement to get to those average skills.

Defense should be easier, as he isn’t an idiot, has good lateral quickness and fluidity, all on top of a 6’10 frame with a clear plus wingspan. The main problem plaguing him at the moment is effort based. He tends to fall asleep on defense, especially offball, especially when he isn’t the focal point of the offense on the other side. His role in the NBA most likely isn't focal point so this problem needs to be shored up. He has the size and wherewithal to be an impactful defender, but the desire has to be there. On offense, playmaking is a genuine worry. There will always be some offball gravity, giving him prebaked playmaking, but onball, the reads aren’t the quickest or the most advanced. This problem is amplified by him playing at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, as his teammates aren’t always the most well suited to put the ball in the basket. However, Baldin will be given a long leash to fix these errors, because players that tall who can shoot that well aren’t exactly a dime a dozen. The real question is whether he has the motor or cares enough to fix these problems.

Synopsis:

Exceptional shooting prospect from everywhere on the floor, off the catch or dribble, with an insanely versatile scoring package. His defensive effort is sometimes lacking, and the reads he makes aren’t advanced, but this type of shooting is one in a million.

Shades of:

Michael Porter Jr with a bit more separation equity, Klay with - defense, and as a worse outcome, Andrea Bargnani

Perhaps the guy who hurt his draft stock the most, Baldwin is tough to scout. He chose to go to the school that his dad coaches, which was an honorable decision but also hurt his draft stock a bit. He hasn’t played against much elite competition, and he didn’t play well when he was facing tougher opponents. Nonetheless, Baldwin is an intriguing player. He has struggled to shoot the rock, but has shown that he can hit threes in the right situation. He is a solid athlete, but doesn’t have much self creation or a quick first step. He has a bit of wiggle to his game and can work around defenders. However, he is lacking on the other end of the floor. He can be unfocused on defense and doesn’t play with the intensity that he should. He definitely might struggle on that end of the floor in the NBA. Baldwin is no longer an elite prospect, but he has loads of natural talent and has the tools to succeed.

Comparison: Smaller MPJ

Projected Draft Range: 20-45

Height 6'9

Weight 220 lbs

Wingspan 6'11

DOB 11/18/02 (Draft Age: 19)

Pre-Draft Team Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers

Offense

• Elite C&S prospect, numbers look poor due to an experiment at UW-Milwaukee featuring him as a primary ball handler.

• Picturesque shooting stroke with a high release.

• A little bit of self creation off the dribble that should get better.

• Highly projectable pull up potential.

• The length to shoot over guys and create a little bit of space.

• Super smooth moving athlete, looks that of an NBA player.

Defense

• Some potential as a perimeter defender.

• Can ball watch and his defensive IQ needs work.

• Probably defending 3's and 4's at the next level.

Swing Factors

Role

• LOW:

• HIGH:

Ranking Scale:

Athleticism: 4/8

3pt shot: 7/10

Finishing: 3/10

Handle: 3/10

Playmaking: 3/8

Defensive Versatility: 6/10

Defensive Positioning: 4/8

Rebounding: 5/6

NBA Fit: 6/10

Total Score: 41/80

Player analysis

Patrick Baldwin is a mess, I would stay as far away from him as possible. He was a top highschool prospect who made a name for himself as a junior by being a very tall shooter with creation upside, that was where it all fell apart. He suffered a lower body injury and ended up missing a portion of his senior year, he then committed to Milluakee simply because his father was the coach. In college he was horrible and posted some of the worst efficiency I've seen in a prospect despite playing mid-major competition, his shot looked off and he even missed time because of the aforementioned lower body injury. Baldwin’s shooting form that made him a prospect in the first place did not look good, although not completely broken he won’t have a single skill if his shot doesn’t work out. The injury concern still being a problem is also extremely unnerving, one lower body injury bothering him still nearly two years later is such a turn-away I'm surprised a few analysts still have as a possible late first round prospect. He does have nice size at 6’10 with a 7’2 wingspan but he recorded one of the worst verticals in the history of the draft process at only 26 inches in his MAX vertical at the combine. Baldwin hasn’t had anything come out of workouts which most likely implies that he isn’t participating in the, there is a high likelihood that he goes undrafted with many teams not even wanting him as an UDFA. The only reason I have his draft range going into the late first is because of the analysts still clinging onto the shadow of a player from two years ago that was a one trick pony to begin with.

Projection

Draft range: [ 27 - undrafted ]

Comp: [ 6’10 Duncan Robinson ]

Strengths: Scoring and Creation Potential Weaknesses: Athleticism and Consistency

High Side Comp: Michael Porter Jr/Kyle Anderson Low Side Comp: Henry Ellenson/Kevin Knox

Ideal Fit: Developmental Secondary Scorer

Draft Range: 20-58

Result: 28- GSW

Athleticism: 4/10 Size: 4/5 Defense:5/10 Strength: 3/5 Quickness: 5/10 Creation: 2/5 Jumpshot: 4/10 Finishing: 2/5 NBA Ready: 2/5 Ball Handling: 5/10 Passing: 7/10 Intangibles: 2/5 Potential: 8/10 TOTAL: 53= Early/Mid Second

Baldwin is a great off ball scorer who can shoot very well but is inconsistent. Baldwin uses his length to finish through contact but doesn’t have a quick step. Baldwin is also a below average defender.

Celling: Superstar/ TJ Warren (Bubble)

Floor: Bench player/ Trevor Ariza

PBJ is a remarkable player, in the sense of his play and potential. I could see him as a backup 3, with his shot, rebounding, and through the pick and roll or screen game. While maybe not the best wing in college, he knows how to shoot and get open shots, and I think his role in the NBA will be as a 3-D player, or as a shot creator.

Ceiling: Paul Pressey

Floor: BJ Armstrong

This guy play terrible for his father team He was a stud at one time not sure what is going on but worth taking a risk at this spot because of his size.

If he turn it around he could be a decent palyer he is slow and he can't jump was terrible at the combine like he never even showed up.